The latest report released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association shows that in November, the production of petroleum and chemical industries in the country maintained a stable growth trend, but the growth rate of some major bulk petrochemical products declined. Of the 65 products that were tracked, there were 57 kinds of year-on-year growth, accounting for 87.7%; and the product sales rate was 99.3%. However, there was a clear differentiation in market prices, the tight price increase in basic chemical raw materials supply was pressing, the rebound in fertilizer market prices rebounded strongly, and the prices of organic chemical products fell in a large area.
In November, the balance between supply and demand in the petrochemical market was generally balanced, and the tension in the refined oil market eased. The first is the slowdown in oil and gas production and the steady growth of refined oil products. In November, crude oil production was 15.314 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.1%, and an increase of 0.7% from the first half; natural gas production was 5.95 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the first half. In November, refined oil production increased steadily. The output was 16.54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, of which gasoline and diesel production were 5.048 million tons and 10.568 million tons, respectively, an increase of 4.7% and 6.1% year-on-year respectively. Second, the growth of some major bulk petrochemical products was curbed, but overall growth remained strong. As Sinopec and PetroChina reduced the production of chemical light oil and increased diesel production, the growth of some large petrochemical products was curbed. In November, the output of ethylene was 891,000 tons, which was 20,000 tons lower than in October; the output of pure benzene was 355,000 tons, which was 50,000 tons lower than that in October. Third, the growth of some high-energy-consuming and over-capacity products continues unabated. Due to the strong market demand at home and abroad, the output of soda ash reached 1.643 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%; the production of calcium carbide was 1.351 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%; the growth of caustic soda slowed in the fourth quarter, but the overall strength remained unchanged, and the monthly output was 1.495 million. Tons, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. The fourth is the strong growth of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Although fertilisers and pesticides are off-season, they are driven by exports and the production shows rapid growth. Fertilizer increased by 7.9% in November, and the output was 4.817 million tons. In particular, the growth of urea was strong. In November, the output was 2.114 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. In November, the output of pesticides was 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%.
At present, international crude oil prices continue to rise, pushing up the prices of domestic refined oil, natural gas, and industrial electricity. The production costs of enterprises are further increased; the transmission capacity of high oil prices to the downstream industrial chain is weakening, and the pressure on the corporate market is increasing. On the whole, the market price was upwardly oscillating. Among the 174 kinds of products that were tracked, the price increased by 69% year-on-year, and the price dropped by 31%, of which the price of organic chemical products dropped more.
First, the supply of some basic chemical raw materials is tight, and the price rises are pressing. Market monitoring showed that in November, the price of sulfuric acid reached 656 yuan (t price, the same below), up 64% year-on-year; the price of sulphur was even out of control, setting a historic price of 2,610 yuan, which rose by 100.8% year-on-year; ethylene glycol prices also Reaching new highs, it reached 14,300 yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 63.7%. The sharp rise in the prices of major basic chemical raw materials reflects the strong momentum of China's macroeconomic growth.
The second is the general increase in fertilizer prices, urea rebounded strongly. In November, the price of domestic fertilizer products rose across the board. The strong rebound in urea prices has become a major attraction. Since August, urea prices have changed slightly from the middle of the year to the next week, with a strong upside. The average price in November reached 1810 yuan, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year and an increase of 45 yuan from August, which is rare in recent years. The reason is that the international urea market has sharply reduced resources and has a strong pull effect on China's urea exports; in addition, the urea export tax rate has dropped from 30% to 15% in the fourth quarter, the export profit space has increased, and the export enthusiasm of enterprises has increased; in addition, the production costs have increased significantly. The increase in the price of coal, natural gas and refined oil has supported the continuous rise in the price of urea.
Third, the prices of organic chemical products have fallen over a large area. In November, the price of organic chemical products consolidated downward. Among the 174 chemical products tracked in focus, there were 54 kinds of price declines, of which 35 were organic chemical products, accounting for 64.8% of the total number of declining products, and 48.6% of the 72 organic chemical products tracked by the focus, a decrease from the previous month. Two more were added. The large decline in the prices of organic chemical products indicates that the ability of high oil prices to be conducted downwards is weakening, corporate profits are shrinking, and product mix will be adjusted, and market competition will further intensify.