â— Cars: The decline in average capacity utilization will lead to lower earnings in the industry (what opportunities will be there before?)
Although domestic demand will continue to grow steadily, the international competitiveness of Class A and Class B cars will continue to increase. However, due to the decline in average capacity utilization rate, the industry's profit margin is expected to decline by one percentage point in 2006, and profits will decline by about 5%. And after 07 years, the average capacity utilization remains
It is possible to continue to decline and maintain the “neutral†investment rating of the car industry; the seasonal characteristics of profitability: Usually 1Q inventory is low, profitability is low, and there may be short-term trading opportunities after 1Q.
â—Commercial vehicles: export growth in raw material prices; stability in heavy-duty-recovery bus competitions (2006: which stocks are the most attractive?)
In 02-05, the import and export balance of more than 20 diesel passenger cars continued to expand; the difference between the import and export volume of the total weight of <20T diesel trucks and gasoline vehicles below 5T also continued to expand; in 2005, domestic heavy trucks were exported for the first time and imported.
In August and September of 2005, the weight of heavy trucks in trucks was significantly lower than the historical level in 01-04; 2005 was actually an extraordinary growth in heavy trucks in 2004; railway transportation capacity was upgraded in stages, and railway capacity increased and rail freight was increased. The volume growth is two different concepts. At present, the proportion of railway freight transport is already at a historically high level; the Ministry of Communications has issued the “Guidelines for Toll-by-weight Toll Collection for Toll Highways†and hopes that the overload phenomenon will be managed through economic means instead of administrative means. We believe that heavy trucks will grow steadily in 2006, coupled with falling raw material prices, and maintain a "carefully recommended" investment rating for the heavy truck industry.
The competitive pattern of large and medium-sized domestic passenger cars is stable, demand is stable, and product differentiation is obvious. The possibility of price war is small, coupled with the drop in raw material prices, which gives the “cautious recommendation†investment rating for large and medium-sized bus companies.
â— Auto parts: International competitiveness is increasingly strengthened optimistic about commercial vehicle parts
The tires, wheels, automotive electronic appliances and instruments, automotive glass and clutches, which are traditionally advantageous items, have continuously expanded their import and export balances, especially tires, glass and clutches; in the past two years, they have been used in non-drive axles, brakes, automotive lighting and signaling devices. The international competitiveness in automobile air-conditioning and bodywork has also improved. It has begun to export >import; the import of body accessories, drive axles and engine parts has dropped significantly; the increase in imports of engines, transmissions and steering systems has also been lower than the increase in vehicle sales. .
Reasons for promising commercial vehicle parts: The international competitiveness of domestic commercial vehicles and auto parts has improved; the average operating profit margin of commercial vehicle parts and components companies is reasonable; the prices of raw materials have fallen; the profitability of the entire vehicle has increased; the pressure on parts prices has been reduced; the prices of raw materials have fallen. The production cost of parts and components has dropped, and we have given the “carefully recommended†rating for commercial vehicle parts.
â— promising public companies
At the industry level, we are optimistic about commercial vehicle parts and commercial vehicles. Correspondingly, we are optimistic about listed companies: commercial vehicle parts - Weifu Gaoke; commercial vehicles - Jianghuai Automobile, Yutong Bus, Jinlong Automobile and Dongfeng Motor.