SAIC Iveco finally got his hands on Chongqing Heavy-duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. and officially reorganized Chongqing Hongyan Automobile Co., Ltd. On June 15 this year, SAIC Iveco Hongyan Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. was formally established. At the same time, SAIC Fiat Hongyan Powertrain Co., Ltd. was established. According to the plan, SAIC Fiat Hongyan will start production of heavy-duty engines in October 2008, with an initial planning capacity of 100,000 units, 40,000 units for SAIC Hongyan Iveco and 60,000 units for the Group's external markets. Of the 100,000 production capacity, 30,000 are Cursor9 series engines, and the rest are Nef series medium- and heavy-duty diesel engines.
UnionPay analysis:
The restructuring of Chongqing Hongyan by SAIC and Iveco is definitely a big event for the automotive industry this year. SAIC has added a powerful force in the heavy truck field. Iveco gained another stronghold in addition to Nanjing, and Chongqing Hongyan won a freshman. In addition, the strong alliance between SAIC and Iveco will have a profound impact on the market structure of heavy trucks in China. However, there is something noteworthy about this reorganization case shining behind it. While the entire vehicle project was approved, the National Development and Reform Commission also approved SAIC's 100,000 engine project. At present, the phenomenon of self-built engine production lines for domestic heavy-duty truck manufacturers is quietly becoming a reality. There are 5 top 7 companies with heavy-duty truck sales, and 5 have self-built or joint venture engine plants, accounting for 71.4% of the total. The trend of heavy-duty truck companies starting their own production of engines has drawn attention.
I. The prospects of China's heavy-duty engine market
China has become the most promising country in the world for the development prospects of heavy-duty vehicles. With the development of China's medium and heavy-duty vehicles, the market for heavy-duty automobile engines is very broad. From January to August this year, 62,821 heavy-duty trucks in China were up 82.84% year-on-year, leading other commercial vehicles.
At present, 100% of China's heavy-duty vehicles use diesel engines. This is because diesel engines have high thermal efficiency, high horsepower, high economic efficiency, and reliable operating quality. From January to August of 2007, the total production volume of 53 automobile engine enterprises in the country was 5085523, an increase of 25.07% over the same period of last year. Among them, the number of vehicle diesel engines was 1,351,764, an increase of 32.2% year-on-year, and the number of vehicle gasoline engines was 3,731,886, an increase of 22.69% year-on-year. The output of diesel engines grew faster than that of gasoline engines by 10 percentage points.
In the same period, the total sales volume of 53 automobile engine companies nationwide was 5,074,402 units, an increase of 25.21% over the same period of last year. Among them, the sales volume of diesel engines for vehicles was 1,347,898, an increase of 31.44% year-on-year; the sales of gasoline engines for automobiles were 3,724,673, an increase of 23.11% over the same period of last year. The production and sales rates of diesel engines and gasoline engines were 99.71% and 99.81%, respectively.
Second, the domestic diesel engine enterprise competition pattern analysis
At present, there are 25 diesel engine manufacturers listed in the Automobile Industry Association statistics, and the top 10 companies in the output include Guangxi Yuchai, FAW-Volkswagen, Liuzhou Wuling, Changan Automobile, and Shanghai Volkswagen. As of the end of August, the output of 10 companies accounted for 49.94% of the country's total output. Sales volume accounted for 49.65% of the country's total sales, and the market concentration was high.
Ranking company production sales sales ratio
Year-on-year growth in January-August ratio from January to August
1 Guangxi Yuchai.124.68.9924.72 99.9
2 China FAW.814.66.9414.54 98.86
3 Kunming Yunnei Dynamics.4111.46 1536649.6711.40 99.23
4 Weichai.169.08.598.85 97.25
5 Dongfeng Chaoyang Diesel Engine 98118-3.647.26 100970-2.737.49 102.91
6 Dongfeng Motor 8848534.45.54 9086347.686.74 102.78
7 Jiangxi Jiangling Motors 705129.15.22 7209611.445.35 102.25
8 China National Heavy Duty Truck 6865482.175.08 6873986.635.10 100.12
9 Yangzhou Diesel Engine 587810.054.35 595119.444.42 101.31
10 Beiqi Foton 4272430.123.16 4250825.653.15 99.49
Source: Automobile Industry Association UnionPay
Judging from the current power matching of heavy trucks, the matching relationship between the diesel engine and the vehicle is simple and complex.
No. diesel engine manufacturers supporting the main vehicle manufacturers
1 Dachai, Xichai First Automobile Group Corporation, Jiefang Automobile Co., Ltd., Dongfeng Cummins, Dongfeng Group Corporation
2 Weichai, Hangzhou, China Heavy Duty Truck, Chongqing Heavy Duty Truck, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck
3 Yuchai Dongfeng Group Corporation, Beiqi Foton, North Benz
4 Shangchai Chongqing Heavy Duty Truck, Beiqi Foton
There are many vehicle manufacturers that supply independent diesel engine products independent of vehicle manufacturers. The main reason can be analyzed from two aspects:
First, from the perspective of vehicle manufacturers, vehicle manufacturers do not want their own technology and production capacity to be controlled and tied up by other vehicle manufacturers. In order to seek greater freedom in production and operations, and reduce the company's business risks, it ultimately chose the products of independent diesel engine companies. From the rapid rise of Beiqi Foton, it can be seen that this choice is amenable to practice and time and is the right decision.
Second, from the point of view of the diesel engine enterprise itself, diesel engine companies affiliated with specific vehicle manufacturers often have relatively small degrees of freedom in sales. Parent companies often control their own diesel engines through written rules or unwritten practices. The sales and sales scale of the products sold by the parent company is the important market for these diesel engine companies, and even the only market; while the independent diesel engine companies have a lot of autonomy in terms of sales, and they can sell as long as there are market orders.
Third, heavy truck companies have built their own engine production lines
However, diesel engine manufacturers that are independent of the entire vehicle industry are now facing unprecedented challenges. Except for SAIC Fiat Red Rock, which was recently established, on August 8th, Xi'an Cummins officially opened its doors and put into operation the Cummins ISM11L electronically controlled heavy-duty diesel engine with an annual production capacity of 50,000 units. At this point, there are two engine manufacturers supporting mainstream heavy truck companies that will form production capacity next year.
According to statistics, the top 7 domestic truck sales have 5 self-built or joint venture engine plants, accounting for 71.4%. FAW Liberation has Xichai and Dachai supporting; SINOTRUK has two engine production bases: Hangfa and Zhangqiu; Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles has Dongfeng Cummins, and Renault dCi11 is also introduced. It is understood that Foton Auman also has plans to build its own engine plant, and Mercedes-Benz and Cummins to cooperate; North Mercedes-Benz has to expand the same with the Inner Mongolia Yiji Group's Huachai Deutz engine supporting share of the intention. Only two or three years ago, only three of the top seven companies had subordinate engine plants, accounting for 42.8%.
Fourth, credit risk tips
Major engine manufacturers of self-built heavy trucks are gradually becoming a trend. At the same time, engine companies that are attached to the main engine plant are gradually expanding their own sites and increasing the proportion of external support. At present, the proportion of Xichai's supply to the outside of the Group is getting higher and higher, currently less than 50%, and is expected to reach 50% in the future; Hangfa's export ratio is less than 30%. If Hangfa moves to expand production capacity, the proportion of exports will be correspondingly Expansion; Dongfeng Cummins also sells half of its products to the Group's external markets. For independent engine companies, the future market situation will undoubtedly become severe. The prospects for independent engine manufacturers that have aging production equipment and can only meet the low-end market requirements are even less optimistic. Judging from the current product structure of the domestic diesel engine market, UnionPay believes that future market competition will be mainly concentrated on medium-heavy engines.
At present, the market share of low-power diesel engines continues to decline. The main reason is that, with the expansion of the heavy truck market capacity, and the rapid adjustment of heavy truck product structure and sales structure, heavy trucks increasingly require high-power diesel engines to match them. However, due to limitations on the displacement and reliability of low-power models, their power levels have been brought to the limit, and these models have gradually failed to meet the demand for heavy-duty trucks for diesel engines, resulting in a large market demand for these models. decline.
The small power gradually withdrew from the market and replaced it with a slightly higher power diesel engine. At present, diesel engines with a displacement of 8-9 liters or so and a power of 147-280 kilowatts occupy the domestic engine market, such as Xichai's CA6DL; Yuchai's YC6112, YC6L; Shangchai's D6114; Weichai and Hangfa's WD615. Dongfeng Cummins 6C and so on. These models can be matched with 10-15 ton heavy trucks, which better meet the requirements of heavy trucks for power levels and torque levels, while also being very well adapted to the market price positioning of heavy trucks in terms of cost and sales price. The combined effect of the two factors has promoted the rapid development of these models. Research shows that these models will reach the peak of consumption in the next 3-5 years, and will show a downward trend afterwards.
Market share is not high, but it is the major development trend of the future products are high-power diesel engines, especially large-tonnage trucks supporting more than 15 tons diesel engine. For example, the Weichai WWD 618.44 engine has a power of 332 kW (approximately 440 hp); the Hang Fat has a total engine power of 360 hp; and the Dongfeng Cummins engine has a power of 460 hp. In addition, environmental protection models are also one of the future trend products. After the compulsory standards were promulgated, major diesel engine manufacturers in the country began to work to improve the level of engine manufacturing to reduce pollutant emissions. At present, engine emission standards mainly include the following aspects: (1) Multi-valve technology; (2) Pressurization and supercharged intercooling technology; (3) High-pressure injection technology; (Europe III requires injection pressure of 120 Pa or more); Electronic control technology; (5) exhaust aftertreatment technology. In addition, the use of low-sulfur aromatic fuels is also one of the important factors to reduce pollution. The Aowei engine used by FAW has reached the Euro II emission standard. If high-quality diesel can be used, the emission standard is expected to meet Euro III requirements; Dongfeng Cummins adopts a high-pressure fuel supply system, booster and intercooling technology, and optimizes the organization of fuel. The mixing of air makes the discharge of harmful substances reach the Euro II standard, and the introduction of electronic control series IISB, ISC, TSL products can meet the Euro III Euro IV standard.
In summary, the demand for low-power diesel engines has been greatly reduced, and the market share has continuously shrunk. Banks need to be cautiously involved in such product projects; strong-powered and environmentally-friendly heavy-duty diesel engines should be the key support products of banks. In view of the poor market environment facing the independent engine companies in the future, banks should select large-scale enterprises such as Yuchai and Kunming Yunnei Power (17.30, -0.07, -0.40%, stocks) to provide credit support.
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