The sharp rise in international oil prices over the weekend did not shake the foregone conclusion of the domestic oil price cut this week. The reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that the new round of refined oil price adjustment window was reopened on Thursday (26th). From the current trend of crude oil, the downward adjustment is expected to be 290 yuan / ton, equivalent to the price increase of 93 Gasoline 0.22 yuan / liter, diesel 0.25 yuan / liter, this is the third time this year, the oil price. Affected by this expectation, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil products frequently bottomed out, and many gas stations started price wars in advance to seize market share.
Following the suspension of domestic oil price adjustment on March 12, the international crude oil market experienced a “black weekâ€. Due to oversupply worries and a strong US dollar pressure, international oil prices continued to fall, and WTI hit a low since March 2009. Although on the fifth working day, the market worried that the US slowdown in interest rate hike dragged down the US dollar and the international oil price rebounded strongly after the decline, the average price of crude oil in this round of the cycle still has a larger decline than the average price of the previous round.
Affected by this, the domestic oil price adjustment reference crude oil rate of change maintained a negative development trend. Zhuo Chuang information data shows that as of March 23, the rate of change of major crude oil varieties was -8.44%, corresponding to a downward adjustment of 280 yuan / ton. The data monitored by Zhongyu Information is -9.07%. "It is expected that the retail price of refined oil will be lowered by 290 yuan/ton at 24:00 on March 26, and the downward adjustment of this round of refined oil products has been basically confirmed." Zhongyu Information analyst Shi Zerui said.
Xu Ying, an analyst at Longzhong Petrochemical Network, also believes that although US crude oil inventories continue to grow, the Fed hints that it will not raise interest rates in advance, causing the US dollar exchange rate to fall, triggering the attention of traders, offsetting and concealing the bearish gap in inventory growth. Oil prices showed a resilience rebound last weekend. However, the bearish impact of significant growth in inventory is still there and will continue to be applied to the near-term market. "If the current oil price is calculated, at the end of the current round of price adjustment, it is expected that the reduction of refined oil products will be expanded to about 300 yuan / ton, which is about 0.3 yuan per conversion."
Affected by this expectation, the refined oil market in the off-season is even more depressed. It is understood that the downstream terminals are just in need of recovery, social stocks are slowly digested, and the pressures of major and local refineries in China Petroleum and Sinopec are prominent. In order to catch up with the sales progress this month, the sales concessions will be deepened, and the main units in individual regions will be single-day. The decline is as high as 500 yuan to 600 yuan per ton.
As the wholesale price of the domestic refined oil market continues to fall, the price difference between gasoline and diesel has been widening and the profit of gas stations has been improved. In order to seize market share, gas stations rushed to expand the price war to increase the preferential margin. According to Zou Ya-nan, an energy analyst at Anxun Siwang, in the strong retail competition, the two domestic companies took the lead in launching preferential policies for agricultural oil. The promotion activities of foreign gas stations such as Shell in March are also numerous.
“In the short-term, the downstream demand for domestic refined oil products is still slow, and the weak demand situation cannot be effectively improved. Coupled with the strong downward revision, the bearish factors still occupy the dominant position in the refined oil market, so it is expected that the domestic finished products will be implemented before the price adjustment is implemented. The oil market is still weak and falling."
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