Unveiling new opportunities for power batteries: see the high-barrier gold mine for functional accessories
Information from China Industrial Development Research Network: In 2016, domestic lithium-power battery companies shipped a total of 30.5GWh, an increase of 79.4%, BYD, CATL, Waterma, Guoxuan Hi-Tech accounted for 62.5%, power battery industry It has already entered the industry oligarchy. Hon Hai has invested 1.1 billion CATL at the end of March this year, and its valuation has reached 84 billion yuan. On the other hand, the trend of battery cost reduction has been pressing the main links of the industry chain. Suppliers have reduced costs and increased efficiency, and with the decline in gross profit, some companies in the upstream of the industrial chain have begun to complain. Is there any opportunity in the power battery industry? Of course, one of them can pay attention to some small cost ratios, the price is not sensitive, but the gross profit is not small, especially the various functions of the power battery. Accessories.
Types of functional accessories for power batteries
In the current industry trend, power battery manufacturers are increasingly approaching the tier1 of the overall integration capability of the system. The main components are to be done by themselves in addition to the battery core. Some of the top power battery companies in bms also choose to do it themselves, but in addition to this. There are also a lot of functional accessories. Most of the manufacturers will choose to purchase from the upstream secondary or tertiary suppliers. These include: the overall structural components of the battery pack: such as the battery casing, side panels, battery backplane; High-voltage circuit connection between module, module housing, cover plate; square-way battery core, cover plate, soft-packed aluminum-plastic film; metal connection between positive and negative poles and pole piece, battery core Cross-border sheets with cells; insulated and insulated, insulating gaskets between cells, bushings in batteries, battery pack seals or others, and of course high-voltage devices with high technical barriers, such as Relays, fuses (including MSD), HVIL circuit harnesses, etc., if it is a liquid cooling system, it will also involve cooling plates, cooling tubes, heaters and other devices. Intuitively, two pictures were cut out from the article of the first electric network teacher Li Haochen's "Easy-to-understand power battery system design explanation", which is very clear:
Of course, this is an air-cooled bag. The main structural components in the bag and the module can be seen clearly. Of course, the cell itself has some structural components as follows:
Battery cover and square pass schematic
Schematic diagram of inner insulating bushing
Actually, each manufacturer will selectively use most of the above products for their own products due to the difference in battery pack design and function, thereby assisting the structural integrity, insulation, thermal management and safety of the power battery system. Functional application.
The role of power battery function accessories
As mentioned above, the functions of these functional accessories are roughly divided into three parts, including structural integrity support, functional connection between cells, insulation flame retardant and sealing, thermal management functions, and high-voltage safety protection:
Of course, many of the above functions are superimposed and cannot be completely separated. For example, the upper cover of the battery core ensures both the integrity of the battery core structure and the design of the safety valve to achieve the purpose of releasing pressure during thermal runaway; The gasket between the two functions both as a functional insulation flame retardant and as a buffer for structural expansion of the battery core at a later stage.
The technical characteristics required for different functional accessories are different. For example, the housing of the battery core is mainly used as a barrier for the active material in the battery core and the whole life cycle. Therefore, durability and corrosion resistance are particularly important; The cross-tab also requires low internal resistance, low heat generation through large current, high connection reliability, vibration requirements, and the use of soft-connected multi-layer metal to ensure the quality of the weld; The requirements for the sealing performance of the battery pack are neither dust nor water. Generally, the IP67 standard can be passed as a whole; the relay requires no high adhesion when the current passes, and can be effectively switched; therefore, the overall requirements and materials are determined. Its own technical difficulties and barriers.
Technical barriers for power battery function accessories
From the point of view of market application, the high-voltage devices, aluminum-plastic films and some ultra-thin water-cooled plates are still in a dominant position in the design of passenger cars. In metal or plastic structural parts, heat-insulating or insulating seals It is already the world of domestic products. This article does not discuss the current functional accessories that are still dominant in foreign products. Obviously they still have certain technical barriers. So are there technical barriers to functional components such as system structural components and insulating seals that have been localized?
The answer is yes. In the early years, I had the privilege of participating in the research and development of power batteries. In the process of product development, I also experienced the failure of structural components such as “cover and leak†and “how to open the safety valveâ€. Therefore, the lithium-ion battery The importance of structural parts is deeply understood. Now with the maturity of the process and the advancement of technology, I believe that the situation has been less and less in the early years, and the barriers have disappeared. The author thinks that there is no. In fact, the maturity of technology does not mean the disappearance of barriers, but the barriers caused by technical difficulties have become barriers to other factors. The author believes that the following three aspects are in order, from high to low. :
The first functional accessory has been integrated into the thermal management and safety design of the battery system, becoming a system that is difficult to segment;
Let me find an example to illustrate that on December 16 last year, industry leader CATL held a media event to show the following information:
The first picture reflects the force of the battery core. The simulation includes vibration, shock, extrusion and other working conditions. In fact, the simulation is the failure of the battery core and the cover plate when the mechanical stress is accumulated, so as to determine The design dimensions, thickness and specific welding strength of the structural members, and the second picture also reflects the failure of the battery reliability expansion, packaging, mechanical parts, these are obviously related to the structural parts, in the Chinese patent Online search for CATL's design of battery structure, simple search below, has reached dozens, and does not mention the actual application of these patents, but one thing is certain that the structural safety design within the battery system has been fully integrated into And played an important role in the safety design considerations of the entire battery system;
In the actual battery manufacturing enterprises, the design of the battery cover, the welding process, the connection between the module and the module, the support of the bottom plate to the module, and the design of some welding integration have led to the current movement of the battery structural components. In the case of a change to a structure, it may be necessary to make changes to the entire system to re-evaluate the safety design; similarly, the combination of insulating seals is also designed to incorporate the thermal management system into the battery at an early stage. In this case, it can be said that together with the structural functional components of the battery, a safety barrier of the battery system is constructed. Therefore, to modify or replace one of the parts requires re-verification of the entire system, and the binding of the supplier of the functional parts and the downstream battery factory during the development process has invisibly formed a very high barrier for this part of the functional parts. .
The second alternative to the R&D and verification cycle;
Readers who have stayed in OEMs or spare parts manufacturers may have a deep understanding. The review of vehicle suppliers is a long process. With the development of the whole vehicle, experience the depth and breadth of various stages, DV, PV Verification, and finally the SOP will be happy. For such suppliers of insulating and insulating materials and structural functional parts, they are often the focus of tests related to durability. Generally, vehicles that have completed endurance tests or crash tests will be required to do DRBTR (Design Review by Test Result). ), which requires a very detailed inspection of the sealing interface, mechanical structural parts, shell corrosion, connection torque, etc. Imagine if the supplier did not have great quality, who would like to re-do this round of verification?
The processing technology and consistent quality assurance of the third material itself.
I think the third barrier is the technology itself, but the barrier of the technology itself is currently a slightly lower barrier than the previous two. It mainly involves three aspects: the functional component supplier's upstream material. For example, the quality control ability of metal and rubber materials itself involves some control of special raw material suppliers; the design and development capabilities of battery manufacturers, the experience of some structural design, and the customized service of material precision; And the process capability to produce these features, including the control of equipment and process yield and product consistency.
In summary, I think that the barriers to functional components are still very high at present, but the reason why "high barriers" are quoted is not because of the manufacturing process of the functional parts themselves or the production of raw materials. Rather, it is the “high barrier†caused by the combination of long-term upstream and downstream R&D system design + long replacement cycle + plus the technology of its own material processing.
Market size of power battery function accessories
Queryed three different sources of data:
· A recent research report from an organization shows: "Batteries of different shapes have different requirements for accessories, and the average cost is about 12%."
·After the 2015-2020 China Automotive Power Battery Market Operation Situation and Investment Prospect Analysis Report released by a consulting network, the value of the bicycle structural parts for electric vehicles is about 1,500 yuan.
· Research report from a certain securities: "The lithium battery group price of 5.5% is the value of the lithium battery structural parts, which is for reference. In 2016, the power class square + cylindrical battery shipments were 25.4GWh, and the unit price was 2.2 yuan / According to wh calculation, the market size of China's power battery structural parts in 2016 is about 25.4×22×5.5%=30.7 billion yuan.â€
The difference in the above data may come from the difference in the definition of structural parts and the statistical time. The calculation of Changjiang Securities is mainly based on the shipment of power batteries, and the group price is 2.2 yuan/wh, which should be a more optimistic estimate; China Industrial Information Network The data time is earlier. Considering the increase in the proportion of pure electric and bus, the average battery pack capacity will increase, and the average price of bicycle structural components may rise. If we calculate according to Shenwan 12%, we will make a conservative estimate and press new energy. The actual sales volume of the car is calculated. It is assumed that each package of 30 degrees is 1500 kWh, then the calculation of the market is also 2.7 billion in 16 years. In April this year, with the introduction of subsidies, the sales of new energy vehicles Returning to the high growth trend, battery shipments will also increase, and the size of battery accessories is expected to increase significantly this year;
The above statistics may not accurately reflect the market size of the industry. We may wish to inquire about the situation of the industry leaders. Currently, the major companies that make battery functions include Kodali, Jiujiu Huali, Fanglin Technology, and thermal insulation accessories. Including Baoyouji, Chengzheng Chemical, etc., we selected Kodali and Baoyou from the industry leading CATL to analyze:
Kodali: The main business is mainly power battery structural parts, automotive structural parts, the following main products displayed for its official website, should be mainly the housing and cover of the battery core:
It can be seen from the prospectus of Kodali that the proportion of Kedalili power battery components has increased year by year. In 2016, only power and energy storage battery accessories have reached the sales scale of 900 million.
Another Baoyouji, a research report shows that as a major supplier of CATL insulation and insulation materials, its functional accessories accounted for a significant increase in revenue. In 2016, its operating income was 66.40 million yuan, an increase of 28.83 over the same period of the previous year. %; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 15.455.5 million yuan, an increase of 180.75% over the same period of the previous year. This year will continue to grow substantially.
From this we can easily see the outbreak of an emerging industry, not only the birth of a nearly 100 billion valuation leader, but also the rapid growth of each of its upstream subsidiary suppliers.
Development trend of power battery function accessories
1. Domestic substitution of technical high barrier accessories;
Finally, let's discuss the development trend of power battery function accessories. First, an industry is often accompanied by high technical barriers. As the technology matures, products with low barriers will gradually appear more and more. Participants, this industry is also the localization rate of the four major materials in the lithium battery industry a few years ago, and now it is not at the same time, and on the functional accessories, at present, domestic manufacturers such as structural parts, insulating heat sinks, seals, etc. There are mature solutions, and with the advancement of technology, accessories such as aluminum plastic film, high-voltage relays, ultra-thin water-cooled plates and other barriers will gradually form a domestic replacement trend, and these parts are even small, with power The scale of the battery industry itself will be enlarged, and there will be no small market;
2. Diversification of new materials and functional accessories;
With the requirement of 300Wh/kg of battery energy density in 2020, the coping strategy is on the one hand the improvement of the activity of the battery material, and on the other hand, it can obviously only reduce the weight of the main structural parts in the battery system. The weight reduction of the structural parts will focus on the application of the new metal material system and the calculation of the exact material of the same material system while maintaining the necessary rigidity and strength, which in fact puts a high technical requirement for the structural parts manufacturers; Functional design such as heat insulation and sealing will also give birth to more and more solutions. Take the seal as an example: there are various sealing solutions such as rubber seals, sealants and sponge tapes on the market, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, and the future will come. Look at the battery's thermal insulation and other functional accessories are also bound to cooperate with the battery pack's cooling system, and the different manufacturers' cooling schemes will inevitably lead to the development of this industry's customization and diversification. In fact, this also tests the function. Manufacturer's design capabilities and process realization capabilities;
3. High gross profit may continue to be maintained;
At present, compared with the four main materials of the battery (positive electrode, negative electrode, separator, electrolyte), the price of some functional accessories accounts for a lower proportion of the overall cost of the battery, and the cost is not sensitive, such as the sealing ring of the battery pack. Undertake the key battery the entire system can achieve the sealing effect of IP67 or even IP68, take a typical price of about 150 yuan, only account for about 0.5% of the cost of a passenger car battery system; and for example, a high-voltage relay is currently about 500 yuan, the future domestically produced replacement price will also drop, according to a system of three (positive, negative, charger) high-voltage relays, only accounted for 2-3%, and in addition to these, such as metal structural parts and insulation The main reason is the rough processing of metal and rubber products, the cost of raw materials is controllable, and the price ratio of itself is low. It is expected that the gross profit will continue to maintain around 30-40% in the next few years.
The last thing I want to say is that with the expansion of the overall cake of new energy vehicles , a small “gold mine†can be formed in the small chain of the industrial chain, and as the technology matures, more high barrier products will be made in China. Instead, when it seems that it is difficult to find these alternative opportunities after 3 to 5 years, the overall new energy vehicle quantity will give rise to a lot of post-market opportunities, including new energy vehicle maintenance and repair, power battery recycling, new energy used Car trading evaluation and so on. It can only be said that we are very fortunate to have been born in this era of witnessing major changes in the industry.
All of the above are my own understanding, please readers and friends to criticize and correct.
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