[Investigation] Comprehensively revealing the survival status of power battery companies

The development of new energy vehicles is inseparable from the power battery. As a core component, the cost of power batteries accounts for 30% to 50% of the cost of the entire vehicle. For a long time, the cost of electric vehicles has led to the price of electric vehicles being significantly higher than that of fuel vehicles of the same class. Therefore, to some extent, new energy vehicles are not attractive to consumers. Further reducing battery costs and improving battery performance have become the industry's efforts. In fact, the situation faced by battery companies this year is different from that of previous years. Because of the “cheat” incident, the impact of the new energy vehicle market in the first quarter of this year exceeded expectations, and battery companies are under pressure from all sides.

The cost of power batteries is closely related to the price of raw materials. At the beginning of this year, the prices of raw materials such as cobalt, nickel, copper and lithium carbonate required for power batteries rose sharply. Taking lithium carbonate, an important raw material for producing ternary lithium batteries, as an example, the price of lithium carbonate in 2015 was about 50,000-90,000 yuan/ton, and climbed to 160,000 yuan/ton in 2016. The price of another important raw material, metal cobalt, All the way up, the price of electrolytic cobalt has climbed from 200,000 yuan/ton in 2015 to nearly 400,000 yuan/ton in 2017.

Compared with the crazy rise in the price of cathode materials, the prices of anode materials, separators and electrolytes are relatively stable. Overall, the prices of battery raw materials are on the rise.

In addition to the higher prices of upstream raw materials, battery companies have to face the price reduction of car companies. Lei Hongjun, assistant general manager and chief engineer of Dongfeng Yangzijiang Automobile, said bluntly: "The automakers will shift the pressure of subsidizing the slope to the power battery companies, and there is no room for bargaining."

It is understood that from the beginning of 2017, the game between OEMs and battery companies has been staged. Lu Huaping, the head of Chery's new energy vehicle market, told reporters that the car companies had been arduously negotiating with battery companies at the beginning of the year, hoping to further reduce battery prices. In fact, the pressure on battery manufacturers is not only due to cost, but the policy changes have also brought great pressure on battery manufacturers. Battery manufacturers must adjust battery specifications, PACK plans and even material formulations according to policy standards.

Battery companies must find their way to survive in the face of rising raw material prices and automakers that are constantly pressing prices.

An insider who did not want to be named by a battery company told reporters: "In fact, in response to the pressure of 'two-head squeeze', many battery companies have their own coping strategies: on the one hand, they can buy shares or set up their own raw material companies to ensure that enterprises use the best price. On the other hand, it can be invested in the whole vehicle enterprise to create a community of interests and reduce the pressure on the whole vehicle enterprise.

Guoxuan Hi-Tech is one of the most typical enterprises. The company has been committed to the development of lithium-ion power batteries and its upstream and downstream industries. In 2016, it has built a production line with an annual output of 8,000 tons of cathode materials, with a planned production capacity of 50,000 tons. The battery cathode material is self-sufficient. In addition, the company also invested in BAIC New Energy , holding a 3.75% stake, making the relationship between the two more stable.

BYD also has a layout in the field of raw materials. Last year, BYD announced that it would jointly establish a new company, Qinghai Salt Lake BYD Resources Development Co., Ltd., with Qinghai Salt Lake Industry and Shenzhen Zhuoyucheng Investment Company. The new company specializes in the development, production and sales of salt lake lithium resources, mainly producing lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and other products.

It is understood that in addition to the above-mentioned ways of investing in upstream and downstream enterprises, battery companies also reduce costs through technological innovation, large-scale production, and amortization of expenses.

For the requirements of the cost reduction of power batteries, relevant guidance has been formulated at the national level. According to the plan of “Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles”, by 2020, the cost of power battery unit is 0.6 yuan/Wh, and the system cost is 1 yuan/Wh; by 2025, the unit cost is 0.5 yuan/Wh. The system cost is 0.9 yuan / Wh; by 2030, the unit cost is 0.4 yuan / Wh, the system cost is 0.8 yuan / Wh.

It is understood that the current battery pack price of mainstream battery companies has dropped significantly compared with the previous two years. At present, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery pack is about 1.7~1.8 yuan/Wh, and the price of ternary lithium battery pack is 1.4~1.7 yuan. /Wh. The industry believes that considering the depreciation and non-amortization expenses of battery companies and the increase in energy density brought about by technological advancement, the price of watt-hour battery will decrease, and the direct decline in power battery prices in 2017 is expected to exceed 20%.

It is important to note that the overcapacity of power batteries is an indisputable fact. The prototype of leading enterprises is basically formed, and the price decline will be much higher than expected. With the release of power battery companies in the second half of the year, market competition will become more intense, and product prices will further Downward trend. It is estimated that between 2017 and 2020, the gross profit margin of the first echelon power battery companies will drop from 30% to around 20%.

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