According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, as of the end of June, the inventory of auto companies (excluding retail stocks) was 504,700, which was a decrease of 8,700 from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 82,300 vehicles from the beginning of the year. From statistical data, corporate inventories have declined slightly for two consecutive months and are currently at a reasonable level. Among them, the inventory of commercial vehicles dropped significantly. The inventory at the end of June was 173,100, which was a drop of 19,000 units from the beginning of the month. The inventory decline has continued for 4 months. It can be said that the commercial vehicle market does not exist in the previous situation reported by the media as a serious backlog of auto market. In accordance with the laws of the past, the truck market began to enter the off-season in July. What is the current inventory of dealers? Does it show a continuous decline? The current lemon tea house invited three truck dealers and asked them to talk about their current stock situation.
Lemon Tea Guest:
Jiang Haiping: General Manager of Longchi Group Lianyungang Automobile Sales & Service Co., Ltd., FAW Jiefang, Shaanxi Auto Dealer
Li Xingguo: General Manager of Jinan Fuhualong Industry Co., Ltd., Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Dealer
Zhang Wenshan: Deputy General Manager of Hebei Tongli Automobile Trading Co., Ltd., Futian, Dongfeng and Jianghuai light truck dealers
Moderator: First of all, please tell us about the current inventory level? Is it at a more normal level?
Jiang Haiping: Our current monthly sales volume is about 70 to 100 units, and the inventory is about 100 units, including the two brands of Liberation and Shaanxi Auto. Most of them are tractors.
Reserve 80 to 100 vehicles are normal, and most of the stock cars are under orders. Our headache is that order users do not mention cars. In this case, there are 40 to 50 vehicles, and the remaining 40 to 50 cars are reasonable. Reserve.
Many of the current stock cars are orders for the period from May to June. It was a peak season and it required a 60-70-day production cycle. Now that these cars are on the way, the recent transportation market is not very good. It caused a backlog of inventory, many users wait and see, although they have paid a deposit, did not say no cars, but it is not anxious to mention the car. We communicate with users in all aspects and try to get them to execute the contract.
Li Xingguo: Our stock situation is normal, generally around 100, because the monthly sales are more than 100 vehicles. Inventory models include Dongfeng Tianjin and Tianlong. The current inventory level is basically the same as last year's same period. If the inventory is not changed yet, if the situation is not good for another 2 months, we will change the purchase volume and purchase plan.
Zhang Wenshan: Our Dongfeng light truck has 130 to 140 inventories. In the Foton era, there are more than 60 light trucks, Foton Aoling is probably more than 50 vehicles, and Jianghuai has 60 to 70 vehicles.
Stockcars are mainly single-row cars. The sales volume of this model is relatively large. Wheelbases below 2.6 meters are mainly single row, 2.6~3.3 meters are single row, row are half, and rows larger than 3.3 meters are more. Since light trucks use a small number of orders, medium- and heavy-duty trucks use more orders, which results in a long production cycle for medium- and heavy-duty trucks and a large number of variables. The production cycle of light trucks is generally more than 10 days, and there will be no situation of medium and heavy trucks.
The current inventory is almost the same period last year. The sales volume of the light truck market is not very large. The current inventory is relatively low, because this time is the off-season, and the inventory will increase during the peak season. At present, the inventory of dozens of stocks must rise to 180.
Moderator: How to digest these stocks? In addition, in the usual sales process, what should be done in inventory control?
Zhang Wenshan: The control of inventory is related to day-to-day management. In general, inventory control will not result in invalid inventory. First of all, we must look at the usual plan. Which type of vehicle sells well and reserves more, overstates some plans, and sells less, it is the most basic means. In addition, you can also consciously promote a certain model to guide users to buy, this is also a way. Some inexperienced salespeople always sell those models that are easy to sell. In fact, some models are not required by users, but the dealers are not promoted or have no clear understanding of user needs. Many light truck users are not very good at vehicles. They often see what other people buy what cars they buy, and think that the cars they buy are also suitable for themselves, but in reality they are more suitable for them. This depends on the sales staff to do the work.
As for the reported inventory plan, it depends on the usual sales, which have a certain calculation method, but the calculation methods of the distributors are not the same, depending on whether the daily statistics are in place and whether the summary is timely, so that it is generally known. In general, there will not be much deviation from the plan for the sales volume of each model. If you do not do these tasks, rely entirely on experience, it will certainly be a problem.
Moderator: It can be seen that market demand is the best solution for digesting inventory. How long do you think this light sales will last?
Jiang Haiping: In the past few years, the market has not been as clear and busy as it used to be. We often say that the market is relatively light from July to September, but now there is always a state where the off-season is not thin and the busy season is not prosperous. For example, we sold more than 100 vehicles a month in the first few months and now sell about 70 to 80 vehicles a month. Do you think that this is not the off-season? The only thing that can be seen now is that the sales from March to May are relatively hot, and then compared with March to May, the market starts to be relatively light in June, and it is estimated that the market will not change much in August. What is the situation from September to November? It is still unknown. According to normal conditions, the first and fourth quarters are peak seasons, and the market should start from mid-September.
Li Xingguo: We still don't see anything. We haven't felt the arrival of the off-season yet. If the sales volume declines next month, if you still purchase goods as usual, there will be 150 to 200 inventories, and I will reduce the purchase volume. However, according to the current situation, we expect that sales will not be very bad next month, because in the colder markets in other parts of the country, the Shandong market is relatively modest, and there are very few ups and downs. It is estimated that this and Shandong local enterprises and the country The small market interaction has a certain relationship. When the transportation market fluctuates in the past few years, the heavy truck market in Hebei Province has experienced great ups and downs. Hebei is a major province of transportation. When the demand for steel and coal mines in other parts of the country decreases, the transportation market in Hebei Province is very cold. The local enterprises in Shandong are relatively even, with aluminum plants, coal yards, and power plants. The demand for freight transportation is relatively large, and the vehicles in the province can be run. Therefore, the transportation market is stable.
Zhang Wenshan: Light truck sales will not have much ups and downs. If the fluctuations are too great, then the overall economic operation may have problems. The price of light trucks is low, and people use them more. The overall scale of light trucks will expand in the future, but the growth rate will not be too fast.
Moderator: During the interview, some dealers stated that this year's market is rather special, and the increase in inventory is not obvious. "Because last year's orders did not take such a long time, it was about 25 days or so, but now it is a delivery period of 2 months, and the production cycle is too long, it is out of line with the needs of the market. Because the manufacturers are in accordance with the distribution Business orders are in production, catch up with changes in market conditions, and orders have changed, which is a troublesome thing.†The dealer stated: “When communicating with dealers and manufacturers across the country, I heard that all manufacturers are In the mobilization of dealers to take more inventory, these cars from the manufacturers inventory into the dealer inventory. In fact, manufacturers are also very difficult, I estimate that the current inventory of the manufacturers are not low. "So, although the stock of various dealers There is no obvious increase, but there is a great possibility of a substantial increase in the future.
In order to digest inventory, many dealers have chosen promotions, such as price cuts, mortgages, etc. The purpose is to digest the inventory first. "In this case, selling a car is not non-profitable, but as long as you can afford to lose a bit, you have to get rid of it quickly. I always feel that there will be problems in the market in the second half of the year. Just like in previous years, the first half of the year was so hot in the second half of the year. Continued to be hot, and now the overall payment rate for many projects is also reduced, and can not be paid on time." A dealer expressed such concerns.
The market is ever-changing and the situation in different regions is not the same. The moderator suggested that manufacturers need to pay close attention to the current market conditions and start analyzing the future trends in all aspects to avoid unnecessary losses.
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