The National Information Center once made such a prediction for the auto market in 2005: sales of 5.82 to 5.85 million vehicles, and China is expected to surpass Japan and become the world’s second largest consumer of automobiles. However, from the actual data from January to November, the sales target has been difficult to achieve, and it is estimated that sales of 5.6 million vehicles can be achieved throughout the year. If Japan's sales target to achieve the target (5.6 million to 5.7 million vehicles), China can really be ranked second in the world.
Compared with the full-year growth rate, the data of China's auto market in November 2005 can be said to be “arrogant and suddenâ€. In November, the nation’s automobile production and sales reached 525,800 vehicles and 549,600 vehicles respectively, up by 26.28% and 21.60% respectively from the previous month, an increase of 20.56% and 21.64% respectively year-on-year. Among them, passenger car production and sales reached 37.10 million units and 393,600 units, up by 24.08% and 23.04% respectively from the previous month, an increase of 30.73% and 33.48% year-on-year respectively; commercial vehicle production and sales reached 154,800 units and 156,600 units, respectively. The growth rate was 31.88% and 18.11%, the output increased by 1.62% year-on-year, and sales volume decreased by 0.61% year-on-year.
From January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 5,144,700 and 513.76 vehicles, an increase of 10.24% and 12.07% respectively over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger vehicles reached 3.5229 million and 3.5153 million, respectively, an increase of 16.40% and 19.48% year-on-year respectively; Sales and sales of commercial vehicles were 1,621,800 and 1,622,300, respectively, down 1.14% and 1.21% year-on-year respectively.
In November, FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, Chang’an and BAIC continued to maintain steady growth. Among them, FAW, SAIC and Chang’an had a significant increase compared to the previous month. In November, the above five companies sold 103,500, 96,900, and 6.46 respectively. 10,000 vehicles, 63,700 vehicles and 50,000 vehicles were up 32.67%, 35.33%, 6.88%, 38.17% and 10.35% respectively from the previous month, an increase of 1.13%, 41.52%, 53.44%, 13.16% and 2.93% respectively. The above five major groups sold a total of 377,700 vehicles in November, which accounted for 68.90% of the total sales of automobiles.
From January to November, the top ten sales companies were: FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, Chang'an, BAIC, GAC, Hafei, Chery, JAC, and Geely. They sold 869,700 units, 807,200 units, 658,500 units, and 566,400 units respectively. The number of vehicles, 542,000 vehicles, 216,300 vehicles, 207,700 vehicles, 163,300 vehicles, 142,200 vehicles, and 318,800 vehicles, compared with the same period of last year, except for the slight decline of FAW, other companies continued to maintain stable growth, among which were Dongfeng, The increase in Chery and Geely is still more pronounced. From January to November, the above-mentioned 10 companies sold a total of 4,304,800 vehicles, accounting for 83.79% of the total sales of automobiles.
Profit becomes a new issue for the auto market this year
After experiencing the madness of last year, the Chinese auto industry should be considered a “soft landing†this year and achieve steady growth. According to the statistics of the Automotive Industry Association for the past 11 months, there are more than 5.1 million pairs of production and sales, which is a year-on-year increase of 10.24% and 12.07%, respectively, both in both production and sales.
From early 2005 until now, many people are still complaining about the downturn in the auto market. Compared with the previous two years, the annual growth rate is 50% or even 80%, and the 10% growth is certainly not high. However, on a global scale, in the vast majority of countries, car sales are basically zero growth, China's car sales can have double-digit growth, enough to make many auto multinational companies amazed.
Compared with 2004, the biggest problem in 2005 is not the inventory problem. It is a serious challenge for manufacturers and businesses to face a rapid decline in profits. Although the decline in China’s auto prices is a normal situation, the overall decline in the overall auto market price this year Not too small, especially near the new year, many mainstream models can be greatly discounted at dealers. While the manufacturer's profits have not dropped to zero, the dealers have already begun a tragic move in the sales field to “make money and lose moneyâ€. However, objectively speaking, including Shanghai Volkswagen, which drastically reduced the price of models in August, auto companies are more artistic in their price reduction strategies, price reductions, timing, and follow-up methods. The auto market did not set off a wave of price wars as it did last year, and consumers did not have a serious mindset for holding money.
Fuel tax and auto consumption tax: the biggest external cause of the auto market in 2006
If we use the word “drop†to summarize the Chinese automobile market in 2004, then the overall trend of the auto market in 2005 seems to be summed up with a “stable†word. In contrast to the previous year's high market and low price fluctuations, China's auto market has grown relatively steadily in 2005. It is expected that the annual sales volume will be around 5.6 million units, an increase of about 10%. Although sales of commercial vehicles showed negative growth due to policy factors, dragging down the growth rate of the entire automobile market as compared with the same period of last year, the sales volume of cars in the first 11 months was still much higher than the same period of last year.
The increase in sales of the sedan market does not mean that profits are equally optimistic. The result of competition sales is largely at the expense of profit. Almost all manufacturers this year take the A-class or lower car as the best range for volume, so the price war has been extremely fierce, and after increasing its performance, it leads to the outcome of “not taking profitsâ€. The B-level or higher car is the main support point for profit, so the price is high. As the profits of passenger car companies have fallen sharply this year, many companies prefer to lower their sales of the B-Class sedan and refuse to cut prices in the event of price increases that increase sales but do not compensate for profit losses. The fact that the B-seges have significantly reduced their prices did not happen, but rather the addition of more new models, making the B-class cars a hot spot for consumption.
The last month is the most critical moment for each major manufacturer's impulse, and it is also the time to set sales tasks for next year. After learning the lessons of the severe oversupply in the auto market in 2004, all auto companies were relatively conservative in formulating their 2005 sales targets. The increase of 10% to 15% became a consensus among manufacturers. Some car companies have annual sales targets It is even lower in 2004. Although sales momentum has improved in 2005, nearly half of the companies have difficulty completing sales tasks. Therefore, the continuous adjustment of production and sales in the past two years is a lesson from many manufacturers, and all manufacturers should consider it more carefully when formulating the 2006 production and sales plan. Although analysts have pointed out that China's auto market will maintain an increase of about 10% to 15% in 2006, but specific to each market segment, but showing different growth prospects. In addition, the fuel tax and auto consumption tax are two big auto policies that will be launched next year. If the implementation of fuel tax, oil prices may increase by 50%, the introduction of these policies will have a great impact on the auto consumption market next year. Presumably these factors are worthy of consideration and consideration by auto companies in setting their 2006 sales targets.