In 2007, the relationship between supply and demand in the Chinese rubber market was relatively relaxed, inventory increased, and supply pressure was high. At the same time, the depreciation of the US dollar and geopolitical turmoil drove oil prices to record highs. The continuous increase in production and import costs pushed the rubber market prices to continue to rise. In 2008, the above-mentioned factors causing price increase did not disappear and there was further increase. Therefore, it is expected that in 2008 China's rubber prices will continue to operate at high levels and will fluctuate widely. The annual average price will remain at 15,000 yuan (t price, the same below). From a macro perspective, there are four main factors that support the high-level operation of the Chinese rubber market in 2008:
Strong consumption situation at home and abroad The Chinese economy has experienced rapid growth for many consecutive years. Despite the tight monetary policy that will be implemented in 2008, the major indicators of economic performance will not drop significantly. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate will reach or close to 11%, the industrial added value will reach 12%, and the real growth rate of fixed asset investment will reach 20%, and the high level growth pattern will remain. On the other hand, although the world economic growth rate has slowed down, it is still in a period of rapid growth. The authoritative agencies predict that the annual growth rate will be around 4%, and the dependence on Chinese rubber products will not weaken. It is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade exports will exceed the whole year. 20%, thus showing a strong domestic and foreign consumption situation, to provide more space for the release of more rubber production capacity, but also opened up a channel for the transfer of increased production and operation costs to sales prices. Based on this calculation, the national demand for rubber in 2008 will reach or exceed 6 million tons, an increase of not less than 10%. The consumption of natural rubber is about 2.6 million tons, and synthetic rubber is about 3.4 million tons.
Further increase in production costs The dominant factor in the rise in rubber prices in 2007 was the gradual increase in production costs. In recent years, the cost of raw materials, energy, logistics, loan interest, environmental protection, and workers' wages required in China's commodity production process have increased a lot. China has entered a period of rapid growth in production costs. The increase in production costs will, sooner or later, shift to sales, triggering price increases. After entering into 2008, the cost-raising factors that triggered the rise in domestic rubber prices have not disappeared, and some have even increased. First, crude oil prices remain high, the annual average price may reach 80 US dollars / barrel, and even see the high point of 100 US dollars / barrel; Second, the international shipping costs rose significantly; Third, China's imports of larger rubber international The price will also increase; Fourth, efforts to save energy and reduce emissions will increase, increasing corporate environmental protection expenses; Fifth, wage levels will be further improved; Sixth, some basic product prices should be straightened, will rise; Seven is to prevent the economy Overheating, it is also possible to increase bank loan interest in the future. With the continued increase in cost, the bottom of China's rubber prices will further increase in 2008.
More substantial dollar devaluation In recent years, the dollar has been depreciating. It is expected that after entering 2008, the United States will continue to see huge "double deficits", liabilities continue to increase, and the tendency of US dollar holders to reduce their holdings and the US government's default and connivance. The trend of weaker US dollar is even more pronounced in the new year. Some people think that the depreciation of the dollar will reach 10% next year, and it may even exceed it. The depreciation of the US dollar stimulated a corresponding increase in rubber prices in the international market, which in turn raised China's import price.
Sustained accumulation of excess liquidity Although the dominant factor driving the increase in rubber prices at this stage is the increase in costs and the depreciation of the US dollar, the overall supply and demand relationship is not tight, but we must also attach importance to the balance of excess supply and demand for excess liquidity, and thus the risk of rubber prices. In recent years, there have been excess liquidity in both domestic and foreign markets. Huge speculative funds have seized the opportunity of continued strong global demand, increasing costs, depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical instability. They have followed suit, fueled waves, and repeatedly pushed rubber prices to new highs. . It is expected that China's trade surplus will continue to increase in 2008, and foreign exchange reserves will increase. The annual foreign trade surplus is close to US$300 billion, an increase of more than 10% from the previous year. In 2007, China’s financial institutions increased interest rates five or six times in a row, and reversed the US’s interest rate cuts several times, which is bound to stimulate the influx of “hot money†overseas. In recent years, the stock market in the country has become extremely volatile, and the "wealth effect" has also caused a large amount of purchasing power to flow into the commodity market, seeking to preserve and appreciate the value of the platform, thereby increasing speculative and hedging demands in the rubber market and forming a speculative premium for rubber prices.
Although the rubber market in the new year has a high operating pattern, on the other hand, we must also see uncertainties in the next year, which increases the risk of market shocks. After the ups and downs of the previous period, China's natural rubber prices have jumped to the 20,000 mark, and synthetic rubber is also around 19,000 yuan, once again entering a high-risk price, facing increasing pressure for callbacks. In particular, it needs to be vigilant that the drag on the US subprime mortgage crisis and the impact of high oil prices will drag the US economy into a recession and cause a noticeable slowdown in world economic growth. This is one of the biggest uncertainties. Since 2007, domestic and foreign rubber supply, especially natural rubber supply and demand has been greatly improved. Stimulated by continued high prices, the natural rubber planting area in China and Southeast Asia has increased significantly. It is worth noting that, with the significant increase in natural rubber production in Southeast Asia this year, China’s import volume as the world’s largest consumer and importing country has not increased much, and it is bound to increase its selling pressure. The existence and occurrence of these negative factors will make the high price volatility of rubber prices inevitable.
Spray Drier
Sanshon Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. , http://www.zjdryer.com