Although the major downside risks and uncertainties facing the world economic situation have eased, the global economy is still weak and growth is slowing. In 2013, the global shipping market has improved since the beginning of the year, the freight rate has gradually recovered, the ship price has bottomed out, and the trading volume has increased significantly. With the recovery of market demand, driven by the increasingly strong economic reforms in China, the global shipping market in 2014 will usher in a two-year recovery.
Second-hand ship market
Recovery and recovery
In 2013, the trade volume of coal, mineral sand, grain and other commodities continued to grow. The global demand for crude oil was strong, and container transportation was steadily increasing. After three years of shipping depression, it was nearing completion. The freight rate has now rebounded. The price of the ship has made the shipowners frequently purchase ships in the second-hand ship market. The global second-hand ship market has shown a warm recovery. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in 2013, a total of 1,616 ships and 869.14 million DWT of global international voyages were sold, an increase of 19.53% and 26.12% respectively compared with 2012. Among the ships that were sold, the average age was 11.01 years, and the average tonnage was 53,784 dwt; the proportions built by Japanese, Chinese and Korean shipyards were 35.27%, 20.98%, and 18.87%, respectively.
The abandonment of a single ship was active. In the whole year, a total of 231 single vessels were abandoned, 16.965 million deadweight tons, and the turnover was 8.227 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.29%, 19.52% and 28.92% of the total turnover respectively. The trend of large-scale ships has been obvious, and the average tonnage (box) of ships has increased. According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the average tonnage (tank) of bulk carriers, tankers and container ships that were sold in the international second-hand ship market last year was 64,502 dwt, 76,900 dwt and 2015, respectively, which were increased or decreased compared to 2012. -6.90%, +23.32%, +22.64%.
International second-hand ship prices bottomed out. At the end of the year, the price of bulk carriers and tankers rose by 30% and 10% respectively compared with the beginning of the year, and container shipping prices bottomed out. In 2013, the total turnover of the global second-hand ship market was US$28.448 billion, and the total transaction amount increased by 64.31% compared with last year. Greek shipowners continue to maintain the position of the world's largest second-hand ship buyer, with a total investment of $7.278 billion to acquire 360 ​​ships of various types. Chinese shipowners ranked second, with a total investment of $1.531 billion to acquire 117 ships of various types.
Domestic cargo bulk cargo prices have risen to varying degrees. Bulk carriers engaged in coastal transportation have increased by 15%-40% for the whole year, and bulk carriers engaged in inland water transportation have increased by 5%-20%. According to the statistics of Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the comprehensive index of domestic coastal and inland river bulk cargo prices at the end of 2013 increased by 36.05% and 5.65% compared with 2012.
According to statistics, in 2013, China Ship Trading Information Platform received a total of 4,512 ships, 6,071,700 DWT and 11.816 billion yuan, which were reported by the ship trading service agencies, which increased by 6.94%, 21.12% and 1.32% respectively compared with last year.
Shipbreaking market
Slightly depressed
As the global shipping market has improved, shipowners are reluctant to make shipbreaking decisions when the market picks up. The shipbreaking market is slightly sluggish compared to the new shipbuilding and second-hand ship markets. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in 2013, the global ship recycling plant acquired a total of 1,018 scrap vessels of various types, 48.852 million tons of dwt, a decrease of 20.41% and 17.72% respectively compared with 2012. The average dismantling age is 26.98 years, which is 1.82% lower than the average dismantling age in 2012.
In recent years, the supply of metal mines has continued to increase and the signs of slowing down in the Chinese real estate industry have led to a sharp drop in metal prices, and the global scrap ship scrapping prices have fallen sharply. According to the statistics of Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 15000-25000 light tons of crude oil wheels, 6000-10000 light tons of product tankers, 7000-12000 light tons of bulk carriers, the annual average shipbreaking valuation of the above ship types in 2013 is 427.06 US dollars / light tons, 423.07 USD/light ton, US$405.84/light ton, down 5.86%, 6.20%, 6.24% compared to the average ship recycling valuation in 2012. The average annual shipbreaking price of the above-mentioned ship types in 2013 was 365.35 US dollars/light ton, 359.24 US dollars/light ton, and 349.95 US dollars/light ton; compared with the average average shipbreaking valuation in 2012, it fell by 2.58%, 7.46% and 8.59%.
Due to the high purchase price of scrap steel in the previous period, the domestic scrap market price continued to fall, and the impact of labor costs and tax increases, the backlog of shipbreaking materials was serious, and most of the shipbreaking companies suffered losses.
New shipbuilding market
Revengeful rebound
As the shipping market situation improved significantly and expectations for future shipbuilding prices rose, shipowners began to order new ships at low levels. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in 2013, there were 2,463 new shipbuilding orders worldwide, a significant increase of 77.83% compared with 2012.
In 2013, the three conventional ship types of bulk carriers, tankers and container ships re-lead the new shipbuilding market, and orders showed an increasing trend, especially for large super-large ships.
According to the statistics of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the number of new bulk carriers in the world was 7,17, with a total of 68,276,600 DWT, an increase of 155.16% and 900.39% respectively compared with 2012. The new tanker orders were 423, 13.26 million DWT, compared to 2012. It increased by 100.47% and 193.94% respectively; the number of new container ships was 258, and the number of containers was 1,975,700 TEU, an increase of 150.49% and 58.44% respectively compared with 2012.
At the same time, orders for related vessels engaged in oil and gas exploration, mining and transportation continue to remain high. The orders for new offshore platforms, three-purpose ships and LNGs were 109, 232 and 84 respectively, an increase of 0.94%, 14.29% and -18.45% respectively compared with 2012.
The new shipbuilding price has bottomed out since May 2013, and the fourth quarter has shown an accelerated upward trend. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the increase in the cost of bulk carriers, tankers and container ships this year is about 10%, 5%, 8%, and other ship types are rising within 3%.
The number of new orders in China has improved. The total number of orders for bulk carriers, three-purpose vessels and offshore platforms ranks first in the world. The total number of orders for tankers and container ships ranks second in the world. Compared with last year's orders for LNG, LPG and special ships. Market share has increased. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in 2013, there were 1,257 new shipbuilding orders in China, an increase of 138.97% compared with 2012. South Korea's new shipbuilding orders were 667, an increase of 59.19% compared with 2012. The orders were based on tankers, LNG and LPG. High-value-added ships such as ultra-large container ships; 165 new orders for shipbuilding in Japan, an increase of 71.88% compared with 2012.
From recovery to prosperity
Outlook 2014
Looking ahead to 2014, the recovery of the second-hand ship market will continue. The World Economic Situation and Outlook 2014 released by the United Nations predicts that the world economy will grow by 3% next year, and the economic growth rate will further increase to 3.3% in 2015. Compared with the growth rate of only 2.1% in 2013, the world economy will improve in the next two years, and the global trade bottoming has already dawned. With the recovery of the shipping industry, compared with the construction of new ships, the process of buying second-hand ships is faster, and it can quickly enter the ship leasing market to benefit, and the second-hand ship market is improving.
The new shipbuilding market is driven by positives. China has issued the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading of Shipbuilding Industry (2013-2015)", "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Marine Economic Development" and "Implementation Plan for Early Retirement of Old Transport Vessels and Single-Shell Tankers" A series of guidelines and policies, speeding up the adjustment of the shipbuilding industry structure through economic policies, will also bring substantial benefits to China's shipbuilding industry. China will accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries such as the marine shipbuilding industry through technological innovation, improve the technical content and added value of products, and enhance market competitiveness. Traditional ships and emerging marine engineering equipment manufacturers will benefit from this. The global economy and the recovery of the Chinese economy will provide support for the recovery of the shipbuilding industry, and new ships will continue to develop in the direction of energy conservation, environmental protection and large-scale. At the same time, as the United States, Brazil, Norway and other countries strengthen investment in deep-sea oil development, the demand for global offshore equipment will continue to grow in the next few years.
The shipbreaking industry needs to find new economic growth points. According to the “Implementation Plan for Early Retirement of Old Transport Vessels and Single-Shell Tankersâ€, the central government will arrange special funds to retired the old transport vessels and orders that were scrapped in advance from 2013 to 2015 on the basis of 1,500 yuan/tonnage. Shell tankers are subsidized and it is expected that the volume of scrap steel vessels and shipbreaking volume will continue to operate at a high level in 2014. Commodity prices continue to be low, and scrap steel ship dismantling prices may continue to fall in 2014. Affected by factors such as the continued sluggishness of the scrap and steel market, the shipbreaking industry should respond cautiously, seize market opportunities and seek new economic growth points.
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