As early as 2012, the State Council passed the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)â€, which proposed that by 2015, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 500,000 units. By 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 2 million, and the cumulative production and sales volume will exceed 5 million. The fuel cell vehicle and vehicle hydrogen energy industry will develop in parallel with the international market.
However, the data of 5 million vehicles has been widely questioned. Many experts and organizations have indicated that it is difficult for China to achieve the ambitious goal of generating 5 million new energy vehicles by 2020. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, new energy vehicles are booming under the series of policies and the joint efforts of local governments and enterprises.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first ten months of this year, China’s new energy vehicles produced a total of 209,900 vehicles. According to the development rules of previous years, the production and sales volume in the two months is expected to hit a new high. Therefore, the industry expects new energy vehicle production to exceed 300,000 in 2015. In 2014, a total of 83,900 new energy vehicles were produced in 2014. In 2013, a total of 17,500 new energy vehicles were produced. Although the target of 500,000 vehicles in 2015 is difficult to achieve, according to this development trend, 2020 It is not impossible to achieve 5 million vehicles a year.
At the 2015 Guangzhou International Electric Vehicle Industry Summit held recently, Tsinghua University professor Ouyang Minggao said that China's new energy vehicles are currently facing three major challenges.
First of all, China's new energy vehicles rely on subsidies more seriously. Passenger cars are relatively normal, and the rationality of subsidies for commercial vehicles, especially 6-8m passenger cars, needs to be improved. The basics that were promoted before last year were all 10-12 meters. The total amount of 6-8 meters this year is close to 80%, which is greatly affected by the subsidy policy. Therefore, the subsidy mechanism needs to be rationalized.
Second, the safety risks of electric vehicles cannot be ignored. At present, the supply of lithium batteries is in short supply, the quality of products is uneven, and there is a downward trend, which leads to an increase in the probability of electric vehicle accidents. Especially for the 12-meter bus, in the event of an accident, it will cause a very dangerous situation.
Third, international competition is fierce. At present, foreign new energy products and technologies are entering China, so domestic research and development must be strengthened. At the same time, to see the opportunities for further development, the rapid advancement of battery technology will drive the revolution in energy production and consumption.
Ouyang Minggao analyzed that the policy incentive mechanism for new energy vehicles will continue and stimulate demand to double. On the other hand, battery advancement can effectively reduce the cost of acquisition, coupled with accelerated infrastructure construction, increased convenience of charging, and reduced expectations for mileage. These two cycles increase the speed of pure electric cars entering the home and are larger. . At the same time, China has introduced regulations on automobile fuel consumption management. The average fuel consumption limit target for 2020 is 5L/100km, and the point system being developed is a reverse mechanism to stimulate enterprises to develop new energy vehicles.
During the Guangzhou Auto Show this year, many car companies have released development plans. New energy vehicles have almost become the development strategy of each car company. In particular, independent car companies will increase investment and R&D of new energy vehicles without exception. According to incomplete statistics, in the next five years, the eight major independent car companies will put into production 91 new energy vehicles. Among them, Changan and SAIC are all planning to put into production more than 30 models.
Car companies continue to increase investment to lay the foundation for new energy vehicles. In the future, with the further encouragement of national support policies and the further improvement of infrastructure, consumers will become more and more aware of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles Promotion will also be smoother.
Ouyang Minggao said that there is still a gap in the amount of 500,000 vehicles in 2015, but it is basically the same. Achieving 2 million units in 2020 is a conservative estimate, and the goal of 5 million possession of new energy vehicles is fully achievable.
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