Zhou Dadi, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that the domestic energy consumption structure is quite different from that of the developed countries. The secondary industry is a large domestic energy consumer. The domestic industry should speed up the adjustment of the energy industry structure in order to solve the shortcomings that occur when the demand is overheated.
When Zhou Dadi attended the 2008 China Energy Environment Summit on December 12, he pointed out that at present, the domestic energy supply and demand situation can be described as “several happy couples.†Except for the shortage of natural gas supply, the phenomenon of oversupply appears in other products. . In the past five years, the growth rate of domestic coal, electricity, and petroleum has clearly exceeded the world average growth rate. The average annual growth rate of coal production is 230 million tons; the installed capacity of electric power is at a high level, and the installed capacity in China is expected to reach 830 million kilowatts in 2008; The average annual growth rate exceeds 2%, exceeding the world average growth rate. In the short term, the oversupply of the energy situation may continue to be maintained.
Affected by the global financial crisis, international oil prices have fallen by about 70% from historical highs, and international coal prices have also dropped sharply. Affected by the fall in international energy prices, domestic energy prices have also experienced "divergence" to varying degrees. As of December 12, Qinhuangdao Datong High-grade Coal (6,000 kcal/kg) had a closing price of 560-580 yuan/ton, which is relatively low. The historical high dropped by nearly 47%. From the supply side, the power industry is in the most difficult period in history, and the five major power groups have announced the expected loss of power generation business.
Zhou Dadi pointed out that there is a big difference between the domestic consumption structure and the developed countries. Energy consumption in developed countries is mainly in the transportation and construction sectors, accounting for 70% of the total, while domestic energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the industrial industry, and chemical industry, building materials, petrochemicals, ferrous metallurgy, non-ferrous metallurgy and other fields account for 50% of primary energy consumption. . Therefore, due to the influence of supply and demand, China will continue to appear "electricity shortage", "oil shortage" and other circumstances, so the domestic industry structure should be quickened to adjust the energy industry, so as to address the shortcomings of overheating occurs.
China has already set a target of reducing energy consumption per million yuan by 20% and reducing emissions of major pollutants by 10% during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period. Zhou Dadi pointed out that the medium- and long-term development goals for domestic energy are: energy conservation priorities, focusing on the development of low-carbon economy, and accelerating renewable energy such as nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, natural gas, and clean coal utilization. First of all, coal should be mainly based on the expansion of production to improve quality, to completely solve coal production safety issues, to achieve large-scale operations, modernization; Second, the main power production to medium and long-term projects, to speed up the adjustment of electricity prices. Third, natural gas production will remain a strong demanding industry for a long time to come, and it will continue to be in a state of supply and demand.
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