China's hybrid car is not playing?

First, Guangzhou issued the latest revised “Measures for the Administration of the Control of the Total Amount of Small and Medium-sized Passenger Cars in Guangzhou”, stipulating that the purchase of energy-saving vehicles will not be subsidized for vehicle registration after July 1.

Subsequently, Keliyuan announced that it intends to acquire a 9.9% stake in Keliyuan Hybrid Power Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as CHS) held by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Geely Group) and Shanghai Huapu Automobile Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Huapu Automobile) holds 27.07% of the shares of CHS. Huapu Automobile is a subsidiary of Geely Holding Group. The transfer of shares means that Geely has completely withdrawn from CHS.

Even the only remaining Guangzhou is no longer subsidized for hybrid vehicles, so there is a view that this is a policy to completely abandon the signal of hybrid support, and Geely exits CHS seems to be "just right" to "verify" This point of view.

When it comes to CHS, many people are still relatively unfamiliar. On October 23, 2014, Keliyuan signed a joint venture agreement with Geely Group to form CHS. The specific contents of the CHS project include R&D, manufacturing and sales of hybrid and transmission system assemblies and battery packs (including power batteries and BPS battery management systems). The total investment of the project is about 10 billion yuan, and the total land area is about 400 mu. It will be built in two phases. Since then, after the capital increase and shareholding change, CHS has expanded its shareholders to six. The legal entities include Yunnei Power, Chongqing Changan New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., Keliyuan, Changan Automobile, Geely Group and Maple Automobile. In November 2015, the scientific and technological achievements of the CHS automotive hybrid system passed the expert appraisal. After testing, the Geely MR7184HEV hybrid electric vehicle equipped with this system has a fuel consumption of 4.9L (NEDC working condition) per 100 kilometers, and the vehicle emissions have reached the national V standard. The appraisal committee believes that the technical achievements have reached the international leading level.

In short, CHS represents to a large extent the level of Chinese companies in hybrid technology. On June 27 this year, the Keliyuan Foshan Plant, with a total planned production capacity of 1 million units/set, was officially put into operation. The chairman of Geely Holding Group also attended the ceremony.

No one ever thought that Geely would suddenly withdraw from CHS. Many people judged: This seems to be Geely's rhythm of abandoning the hybrid technology route. Even Li Shufu, who is quite hybrid, is not optimistic about hybrid power. The hope of hybrid power in China is slim.

Is this really the case? In my opinion, Geely's withdrawal from CHS does not mean that the hybrid is going to be cool in China. From the perspectives of policies, markets, and enterprises, hybrids still have market prospects in China.

First, the “double points” policy after the subsidy has subsided is beneficial to the development of hybrid vehicles. As we all know, China's new energy vehicle financial subsidy policy has not benefited hybrid vehicles, resulting in hybrids suffering from policy support. However, the "double points" policy after the subsidies have retreated has given the hybrids with obvious advantages in fuel economy. A more objective market growth space. Automobile companies need to reduce fuel consumption to obtain positive fuel consumption points. The previous strategic goal of energy conservation and new energy vehicle industry development disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly stated that in terms of energy-saving vehicles, by 2020, passenger vehicles (including new energy passenger vehicles) The overall fuel consumption of the new car fell to 5 liters / 100 kilometers, and in 2025 it fell to 4 liters / 100 kilometers.

In the case of subsidies that are about to fall completely, companies need to find an energy-saving technology that can be widely accepted for market consumption and meet regulatory requirements. This is not a hybrid.

Second, from a global perspective, hybrids still have a good market space. According to the latest report of a research institute, the global hybrid vehicle market will reach 4.169 million vehicles in 2018. It is estimated that the market size will reach 7.793 million by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.94%. As for Toyota, a representative company of hybrid power, as of the end of January 2017, Toyota's cumulative sales of hybrid vehicles in the world have exceeded 10 million.

It is true that hybrid power is only a transitional technology. There is no controversy. However, the length of this transitional technology is determined by the market demand and the speed of application of new technologies. For now, electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles have replaced fuel vehicles. To become the mainstream of the market, it still takes a long period.

Third, Chinese independent brand auto companies pay more and more attention to hybrid technology. Two examples can be given. One is that Geely withdraws from CHS, which is not the same as Geely's abandonment of hybrid power. According to the "Blue Geely Action" released by Geely, the new energy vehicle sales target for 2020 is 1.8 million, including 35% pure electric vehicles and 65% hybrid vehicles. In terms of hybrid technology, Geely has formed three major routes of MHEV light mixing technology, HEV oil-electric hybrid technology and PHEV plug-in hybrid technology, and launched hybrid models such as Borui GE MHEV.

The second is the "Shangri-La Project" issued by Changan. By 2020, it will complete the construction of three new special platforms for new energy. At the same time, it will stop selling traditional fuel vehicles in 2025 and develop into hybrid, pure electric and fuel cells. In 2025, Changan will introduce more than 30 new energy vehicle products to the market, of which 16 will be hybrid vehicles.

In short, if pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles are open source, then hybrid power can be defined as throttling. In the case that open source requires a long process, it may be worthwhile to do more work on throttling.