Lithium-ion copper foil continues to be out of balance, in short supply or lasts until 2018
 Lithium-ion copper foil is in short supply, and the agency expects that the sales of downstream new energy vehicles will further widen the gap between supply and demand in the second and third quarters of this year.
Guohai Securities Research Report pointed out that the shortage of lithium battery copper foil will continue until 2018. Copper foil can be classified into standard copper foil and lithium battery copper foil according to the use. Standard copper foil is mainly used for PCB copper-clad board, accounting for more than 70%. Lithium- ion copper foil is mainly used for the anode current collector of lithium batteries . Assume that the power and energy storage battery is about 900 tons per Gwh, and the 3C battery is about 700 tons per Gwh. It is estimated that the total demand for lithium copper foil in 2017-2020 will reach 54,200 tons, 66,600 tons and 86,800 respectively. Tons, 114,100 tons. From the perspective of stock supply, the current nominal capacity of lithium-ion copper foil in China is 60,300 tons, and the actual effective capacity is less than 50,000 tons.
The incremental supply comes from three aspects: new capacity, standard copper foil turned to lithium copper foil, and foreign imports. From the perspective of new capacity, lithium-ion copper foil has high barriers to entry, and the barriers mainly lie in production equipment and processes. The core equipment cathode roller relies on import, and the customization and debugging cycle is long. Therefore, the lithium battery copper foil expansion period is about 1.5-2 years. From the planning of the domestic copper foil factory, the release of new capacity will be concentrated in 2018.
The environmental protection requirements of copper foil production are strict, the scale of investment is large, and the high operating cost also restricts large-scale expansion. The demand for standard copper foil has grown steadily. Some of the shifts to lithium-ion copper foil have caused supply contraction, and there has been a shortage of supply. Therefore, there is limited space for subsequent transfer to lithium foil. The supply and demand in overseas markets are basically balanced, and the expansion rate is slower. We judge that the supply and demand gap of 2017 lithium copper foil will be larger than that of 2016, and the shortage of supply is expected to continue until 2018.
Nord's shares: The trend of thin and light copper foil is obvious, and the company seizes the opportunity. At present, the mainstream copper foil thickness of the market power lithium battery is 8um, and the processing fee is 4.0-45,000/ton. Since the power battery pursues high energy density, some manufacturers have adopted 6um copper foil. At present, the domestic manufacturers of mass-produced 6um copper foil are mainly the company and Lingbao Huaxin. 6um products have higher requirements on equipment, technology and process, and the pass rate is lower than 8um, about 80%. Therefore, the processing cost of 6um is relatively high, and the average processing cost of the industry is about 70,000-30,000/ton. 6um copper foil is a general trend. With the improvement of the preparation level of anode materials and the technological progress of battery factories, it is expected that the demand for 6um copper foil will be greatly improved next year, and the company will seize the opportunities in production capacity, technology and customer development.
As the "first share of copper foil", the company will fully benefit. After technical transformation, the company's current production capacity is about 30,000 tons, and the leading position of copper foil has been further consolidated; more importantly, as copper foil tends to be lighter and thinner, the added value has climbed all the way, 6μm copper foil (processing fee 75,000/ton) The mass production will greatly enhance the product structure. The average processing fee increased by 5,000 yuan, and the company's net profit increased by 100 million.
Shengyi Technology: Tongling has its copper crown copper foil, which is the largest third-party standard copper foil supplier in China. Domestic CCL leading enterprises, customers covering major domestic PCB large and medium-sized enterprises, and Tongling nonferrous cooperation, will enhance the competitiveness and influence of the industry. The communication industry is gradually extended from 4G, 4.5G to 5G. Both spectrum expansion and dense networking put forward higher requirements for high-frequency copper-clad substrates. In the 16-year mid-year report, Shengyi invested in setting up a wholly-owned subsidiary to invest 253.3 million yuan in the field of special copper-clad (high-frequency), which is also in the forefront layout.
According to our understanding, the current high-frequency high-speed special copper foils such as reverse-treated copper foil (RTF) and ultra-low-edge copper foil (VLP) are mainly purchased from Japan, Taiwan and other regions. At present, trade protection is heating up, and patent wars continue. Driven by the constant drive, domestic communications, server and other industry leaders such as Huawei and Inspur have the urgent need to achieve localization of basic materials to ensure supply chain security. The cooperation between Shengyi and Tongling in high-frequency and high-speed materials not only utilizes their respective advantages, but also conforms to the domestic trend of domestic electronic key raw materials.
Jinan Guoji: The company is a medium-thick copper clad faucet with more than 40 million CCL production capacity. It can maintain a high operating rate through flexible adjustment of product structure, and the capacity of 82.56 million meters of electronic grade fiberglass cloth can further consolidate the supply chain advantage. Reduce costs and increase profitability. For the small and medium-sized customer groups, the company has strong bargaining power, and the price of CCL is very flexible. It is expected that the annual performance will benefit from the high price growth period. In addition, the extensive exploration of industries such as big health is expected to add new profit growth points.
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